Acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition have reached severe levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas.
An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance.
This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 430,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI
Phase 4 (Emergency), bringing the total number of people in Kenya in IPC Phase 3 or worse to more than 3.7 million.
This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets.
Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.
At the same time, acute malnutrition has sharply deteriorated between late 2025 and January 2026, with nearly 810,900 cases of children aged 6–59 months who are acutely malnourished and require treatment throughout 2026. Of these, 500,000 cases (62 per cent) are in the ASAL counties. Mandera, North Horr/Chalbi (Marsabit), and Turkana South and East are already classified in IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 5 (Extremely Critical), and Laisamis is projected to deteriorate to IPC AMN Phase 5 between March and June 2026. IPC AMN Phase 5 acute malnutrition indicates that at least one in
three children is acutely malnourished, alongside widespread outbreaks of dysentery, cholera, acute watery diarrhoea, and measles, driving excess mortality. An urgent, large-scale, multisectoral response is required to prevent further deaths.
These severe outcomes are driven by below-average and erratic October–December 2025 rains, which caused widespread crop failure, poor pasture regeneration, and inadequate recovery of water sources. Climatic shocks have
been compounded by rising insecurity, increasing lake levels that have submerged homes and farmland, and extensive crop and livestock pest infestations, resulting in reduced harvests, weakened herds, and rising household vulnerability.
Staple food prices have surged across livelihood zones, eroding purchasing power at a time when household stocks were already depleted. Meanwhile, humanitarian assistance has fallen significantly compared to the same period last year, leaving major gaps in essential services.
The deterioration in acute malnutrition is also linked to the prolonged drought, poor dietary diversity, low milk availability,
and a high disease burden—including outbreaks of cholera, measles, mpox, and kalaazar—combined with weakened health and nutrition services due to reduced humanitarian funding.